Operational Risk Assessment of Terminal Airspace with Prevailing Traffic Flow

The characterization and assessment of operational risks represent critical steps in enhancing airspace operational safety and management capabilities, particularly in structurally complex terminal airspaces with multiple intersecting arrival and departure flows. Traditional collision risk models predominantly focus on preemptive single-aircraft conflict detection and fixed-routes, exhibiting limitations in characterizing terminal airspace operational structures and analyzing post-conflict risks. This study develops a methodology that extracts prevalent traffic flows from historical trajectory data through clustering, which identifies geometric configurations of conflict scenarios and incorporating aircraft maneuvering adjustments. By analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution in risk-prone areas, an assessment metric defined as the expected collision frequency per unit time was constructed to quantify the operational risk. Cumulative aggregation across diverse temporal and spatial scales enables risk quantification and hotspot identification, thereby facilitating operational evaluations, early warnings for high-risk traffic flows and spatiotemporal hotspots, and providing guidance for air traffic control, tactical planning, and airspace construction. A case study of Guangzhou Baiyun Airport validates the model's effectiveness in risk characterization and hotspot detection, Key findings include: Conflict risks between arrival flows constitute the primary risk category; The departure flow of VIBOS requires attention under northbound operation; Temporal risk hotspots are concentrated between 13:00—14:00 and 22:00—02:00.