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考虑时空紧迫度的船舶碰撞动态风险估计方法

刘钊 陈阳 张明阳

刘钊, 陈阳, 张明阳. 考虑时空紧迫度的船舶碰撞动态风险估计方法[J]. 交通信息与安全, 2021, 39(6): 11-18. doi: 10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2021.06.002
引用本文: 刘钊, 陈阳, 张明阳. 考虑时空紧迫度的船舶碰撞动态风险估计方法[J]. 交通信息与安全, 2021, 39(6): 11-18. doi: 10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2021.06.002
LIU Zhao, CHEN Yang, ZHANG Mingyang. A Method for Estimating Dynamic Collision Risk of Vessels Considering Spatial-temporal Adjacency[J]. Journal of Transport Information and Safety, 2021, 39(6): 11-18. doi: 10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2021.06.002
Citation: LIU Zhao, CHEN Yang, ZHANG Mingyang. A Method for Estimating Dynamic Collision Risk of Vessels Considering Spatial-temporal Adjacency[J]. Journal of Transport Information and Safety, 2021, 39(6): 11-18. doi: 10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2021.06.002

考虑时空紧迫度的船舶碰撞动态风险估计方法

doi: 10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2021.06.002
基金项目: 

国家自然科学基金青年基金项目 51809207

详细信息
    作者简介:

    刘钊(1986—), 博士, 副教授.研究方向: 水上交通系统建模与仿真、海事大数据挖掘与可视分析、水上交通系统安全评价.E-mail: zhaoliu@whut.edu.cn

    通讯作者:

    张明阳(1993—), 博士研究生.研究方向: 水上交通安全工程.E-mail: mingyang.0.zhang@aalto.fi

  • 中图分类号: U676.1

A Method for Estimating Dynamic Collision Risk of Vessels Considering Spatial-temporal Adjacency

  • 摘要: 为解决传统船舶碰撞风险计算方法在繁忙受限水域的应用局限性问题,运用突变理论提出了1种考虑时空紧迫度的船舶碰撞风险计算方法。根据2船实际船舶领域叠加区域数值和2船同方位发生碰撞时的船舶领域叠加区域数值,建立船舶碰撞空间紧迫度计算模型;基于2船相对位置和相对速度的矢量关系,建立船舶碰撞时间紧迫度计算模型。在此基础上,运用突变理论建立了考虑时空紧迫度的船舶碰撞风险计算模型。通过模拟仿真实验,将该模型与最小会遇距离(DCPA)和最小会遇时间(TCPA)及基于时空距离的碰撞风险评估模型进行了对比分析。实验结果表明:提出的船舶动态风险计算模型在复杂受限水域中能反映船舶碰撞风险变化量,且碰撞风险变化幅度较小,克服了DCPATCPA以及基于时空距离的碰撞风险评估模型在复杂受限水域中非线性描述风险变化的不足,可为船舶避碰决策提供参考。

     

  • 图  1  船舶碰撞风险计算建模流程

    Figure  1.  Modeling process on the calculation of vessel collision risk

    图  2  船舶领域分层示意图

    Figure  2.  Classic ship domain model

    图  3  船舶相对位置示意图

    Figure  3.  Relative positions of vessels

    图  4  船A与船B,C,D的2船碰撞风险

    Figure  4.  Collision risk among vessel A and vessels B, C, and D

    图  5  船A与船B,C,D的多船碰撞风险

    Figure  5.  Multi-vessel collision risk among vessel A and vessels B, C, and D

    图  6  船A与船B,C,D的基于时空距离的碰撞风险

    Figure  6.  Spatio-temporal distance-based collision risk among vessel A and vessels B, C, and D

    表  1  船舶领域层级边界尺度及权重赋值

    Table  1.   Boundary scale and weight assignment of vessel level domain

    船舶领域层级 船舶领域层级边界尺度 权重赋值μi
    长轴/m 短轴/m
    2L 0.32L+0.8B 16
    3L 0.64L+0.6B 8
    4L 0.96L+0.4B 4
    5L 1.28L+0.2B 2
    6L 1.6L 1
    注:L为船长(m),B为船宽(m)。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  船舶领域叠加层级权重赋值

    Table  2.   Weight assignment on overlap of vessel level domain

    船舶领域叠加层级 船舶领域叠加层级权重赋值μij
    Ⅰ-Ⅰ 32
    Ⅰ-Ⅱ/Ⅱ-Ⅰ 24
    Ⅰ-Ⅲ/Ⅲ-Ⅰ 20
    Ⅰ-Ⅳ/Ⅳ-Ⅰ 18
    Ⅰ-Ⅴ/Ⅴ-Ⅰ 17
    Ⅱ-Ⅱ 16
    Ⅱ-Ⅲ/Ⅲ-Ⅱ 12
    Ⅱ-Ⅳ/Ⅳ-Ⅱ 10
    Ⅱ-Ⅴ/Ⅴ-Ⅱ 9
    Ⅲ-Ⅲ 8
    Ⅲ-Ⅳ/Ⅳ-Ⅲ 6
    Ⅲ-Ⅴ/Ⅴ-Ⅲ 5
    Ⅳ-Ⅳ 4
    Ⅳ-Ⅴ/Ⅴ-Ⅳ 3
    Ⅴ-Ⅴ 2
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  实验船舶数据表

    Table  3.   Experimental data of vessels

    船舶 船长/m 船宽/m 航速/kn 航向/(°) 船首向/(°) 纬度距离/m 经度距离/m
    船A 189 28 8 090 090
    船B 250 34 12 090 093 200 1 000
    船C 250 34 12 270 267 200 2 000
    船D 250 34 12 000 002 2 639.445 2 000
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  3种风险计算方法结果对比

    Table  4.   Comparison of the results of three risk-calculation methods

    实验方法 风险要素 船A-B 船A-C 船A-D
    碰撞动态风险计算模型 最大风险时刻T/s 425 190 440
    最大风险值Rmax 0.755 0.781 0.968
    基于CPA的碰撞风险判断法 TCPA为零时刻/s 485.96 194.37 445.50
    DCPA /m 200 200 200
    基于时空距离的碰撞风险评估模型 最大风险时刻T'/s 485.00 195.00 445.00
    最大风险值rmax 0.52 0.52 0.89
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2020-05-23
  • 网络出版日期:  2022-01-12

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