Transfer Penalty Measurement of Intercity Rail Transit Hub Based on Nest Logit model

In the context of transit-oriented development (TOD), assessing the transfer convenience of travelers at rail transit hubs serves as a fundamental basis for optimizing transfer organization and design. However, existing domestic research lacks quantitative evaluations of intercity transfer penalty and empirical studies on the differences in transfer penalty among different traveler groups. To address this gap, this study constructs a nested Logit (NL) model with a two-tier structure (feeder travel and trunk-line travel) to characterize travelers' intercity travel mode choices. The trunk-line travel modes considered include private cars, high-speed rail, and long-distance buses, while the feeder travel modes encompass walking/bicycling, private cars/taxis/ride-hailing services, and public buses/urban rail transit. To calibrate the model parameters, revealed preference and stated preference surveys were conducted to collect intercity travel mode choice data from residents. Based on the model results, key factors influencing travel mode selection were identified, a quantitative measurement method for transfer penalty was developed, and differences in transfer impedance across different demographic groups were analyzed. The main findings of this study are as follows: ①Intercity travel mode choices are significantly influenced by socioeconomic attributes and travel mode characteristics. Among the socioeconomic attributes, the most significant factors include education level (t= 3.492), occupation (t=3.422), and private car ownership (t=－5.722). Regarding travel characteristics, the most influential factors include travel time (t=－4.745) and travel cost (t=－5.935). ②The estimated value of time for different travel stages is as follows: out-of-vehicle time 56.6 CNY/h, in-vehicle time 55.0 CNY/h, and delay time 58.0 CNY/h. The transfer penalty values, based on equivalent cost, equivalent in-vehicle time, and equivalent out-of-vehicle time, are 25.4 CNY per transfer, 26.9 minutes per transfer, and 27.6 minutes per transfer, respectively. ③There is significant heterogeneity in transfer penalty among different education, occupation, and income groups. Specifically, the transfer penalty for the postgraduate group is approximately 1.3 times that of the undergraduate group; the public sector employees exhibit transfer penalty approximately three times higher than that of students; and the high-income group (>10 000 CNY/month) has a transfer penalty 3.7 times higher than the low-income group (2 000—5 000 CNY/month). These findings provide theoretical insights and practical guidance for evaluating transfer efficiency at intercity rail transit hubs and optimizing transfer organization and planning.