Disaggregate Carbon Emission Assessment Method and the Pathway to Carbon Neutrality in Container Ports

In response to the green transition of ports, carbon emission accounting, and the cost estimation of adopting greening measures, an in-depth analysis of the logistics operations at container ports is conducted. It aims to establish a carbon emission evaluation method and explore pathways to achieving carbon neutrality, thereby promoting sustainable development. This study employs the GM(1, 1) model to forecast future port throughput based on historical data at container ports. Based on these predictions, a segmented approach is used to assess the average energy consumption of port machinery, storage, office facilities, and other infrastructure during logistics operations, enabling a bottom-up prediction of port carbon emissions. To address the major sources of carbon emissions at ports, several carbon reduction strategies and pathways are explored, including facility upgrades, technological innovations, green energy adoption, and policy incentives. A detailed cost analysis is conducted for each strategy. A case study of a specific container port demonstrates the emission reduction potential and costs associated with these measures. Results show that as throughput continues to increase, facility upgrades and technological innovations can only reduce carbon emissions significantly during the port's peak operations, and after the peak stage, emissions will not further decrease. Compared to the baseline scenario without measures, implementing only facility upgrades achieves a maximum annual carbon reduction of 38.49%, while combining facility upgrades with technological innovations yields a maximum annual reduction of 61.29%. Furthermore, the introduction of green energy measures facilitates the achievement of carbon neutrality, and policy incentives can accelerate this process by up to 15 years. The application of these measures not only reduces carbon emissions but also lowers port energy costs, thus contributing positively to the direct economic benefits of ports during green transitions.