Volume 40 Issue 6
Dec.  2022
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Article Navigation >  Journal of Transport Information and Safety  > 2022  >  40(6): 92-105
ZHANG Xie, XIAO Enyuan, LIU Hongzhi, ZHAO Yifei, WANG Mengqi. An Evaluation method for the Suitability of Three Visibility Graphs in Analyzing the Fluctuation Characteristics of Arrival Flight Flows[J]. Journal of Transport Information and Safety, 2022, 40(6): 92-105. doi: 10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2022.06.010
Citation: ZHANG Xie, XIAO Enyuan, LIU Hongzhi, ZHAO Yifei, WANG Mengqi. An Evaluation method for the Suitability of Three Visibility Graphs in Analyzing the Fluctuation Characteristics of Arrival Flight Flows[J]. Journal of Transport Information and Safety, 2022, 40(6): 92-105. doi: 10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2022.06.010
shu

An Evaluation method for the Suitability of Three Visibility Graphs in Analyzing the Fluctuation Characteristics of Arrival Flight Flows

doi: 10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2022.06.010
  • 1.

    College of Air Traffic Management, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China

  • 2.

    Institute of Civil Aviation Development and Planning, China Academy of Civil Aviation Science and Technology, Beijing 100028, China

  • Received Date: 2022-04-23
    Available Online: 2023-03-27
    Abstract
  • Understanding the fluctuation characteristics of air traffic flows plays a leading, essential, and key role in many aspects of their control and management, such as airspace configuration optimization, efficiency promotion, and safety assurance. This paper aims to evaluate the suitability of the visibility graph(VG), horizontal visibility graph(HVG), and limited penetrable visibility graph(LPVG) in analyzing the fluctuation characteristics of air traffic flows. A complex network based on the multi-scale time series data extracted from the same arrival flow is developed and the suitability of three visibility graphs is evaluated from the global and local structure perspectives. From the global perspective, a concept of details loss rate is proposed by considering the characteristics of the network structure-dependent matrix. Then a k-core cluster is used to analyze the suitability of quantifying the strength of flight flow fluctuations. From the local perspective, a transfer probability of fluctuation patterns is calculated using the sequential motifs method, and the suitability of the sequential motif with different lengths in characterizing fluctuation characteristics of flight flows is evaluated. The results show that: ①the loss rate of detail can be limited within 0.5 when the proportion of N value of the LPVG in network nodes ranges from 0.48% to 1.442%;②VG and LPVG(N=1~3) can effectively describe the intensity of fluctuation of flight flow time series data and the suitability value is 2.665, 4.810, 6.973, and 9.883, respectively; ③a long sequential motif would reduce the number of sequential motifs and result in the similarity of transition probability among different types of the sequential motifs, while a short sequential motif is useless for prediction due the chaotic characteristics of traffic flow. Thus, it is recommended to use the sequential motif with the length of 4, 5, 6, and 7 for VG and LPVG(N=1~3). In conclusion, the k-core cluster and the motifs method provide an in-depth analysis of the transfer characteristics among the fluctuation modes and the evolution of time dimension in air traffic, which offers support for delay prediction and plays a leading role in the actual operation management of flights.

     

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