Volume 40 Issue 5
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ZHANG Jie, ZHANG Mengmeng, LI Hongyan. An Analysis of Severity of Traffic Accidents on Urban Roadways Based on Binary Logistic Models[J]. Journal of Transport Information and Safety, 2022, 40(5): 70-79. doi: 10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2022.05.008
Citation: ZHANG Jie, ZHANG Mengmeng, LI Hongyan. An Analysis of Severity of Traffic Accidents on Urban Roadways Based on Binary Logistic Models[J]. Journal of Transport Information and Safety, 2022, 40(5): 70-79. doi: 10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2022.05.008
shu

An Analysis of Severity of Traffic Accidents on Urban Roadways Based on Binary Logistic Models

doi: 10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2022.05.008

  • School of Transportation and Logistics Engineering, Shandong Jiaotong University, Jinan 250357, China

  • Received Date: 2022-06-18
    Available Online: 2022-12-05
    Abstract
  • In order to accurately identify the factors affecting the severity of traffic accidents on urban roadways, 4 587 records from the traffic accident database of a city in China from Year 2018 to 2020 are used. A series of binary logistic models are developed for property damage accidents, personal-injury accidents, and fatal accidents based on the data regarding the following four aspects, including participants, vehicles, roads, and environment. The impacts of location of dividing strips and the types of roadside protection facilities on the severity of accidents are analyzed. Further, the Hosmer-Lemeshow tests and the consistency tests are used to check the soundness of the models. The results from the binary Logistic models show that: ① locations of dividing strips have a significant effect on the severity of the accidents. The probability of fatal accidents of placing central dividing strips only is 2.304 times higher than placing both central and motor/non-motor dividing strips. On high-grade roads with central dividing strips, adding motorized/non-motorized dividing strips can effectively reduce the probability of accidents. ② The probability of fatal accidents for the roadside protection facilities being street trees and green belts is 1.982 times and 1.648 times higher than the roadside protection facilities being metal guardrails, respectively. Street trees as the type of roadside protection facilities are likely to lead to more serious accidents than metal guardrails. ③The probability of fatal accidents at night "with no streetlight" is 1.808 times higher than that "with streetlights" at night. No streetlight at night is a significant risk factor leading to the fatal accidents. ④ Drivers with a high-level of education are more likely to have property-damage accidents and personal-injury accidents. Fatal accidents are more likely to occur among drivers with a medium-level of education, and their probability of resulting in the fatal accidents is 2.049 times higher than drivers with a high-level of education. In conclusion, this study presents an analysis of the factors and their impacts on traffic accidents at urban roadways. Furthermore, it can serve as a theoretical support for the refined analysis of accident severity on urban roadways, as well as a reference for traffic safety planning and management authorities.

     

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