Human Reliability Prediction for Ship Pilot Based on Modified CREAM

In order to precisely predict human reliability of ship pilots, this paper proposes a model to analyze human reliability based on cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM).An improved decision-making and trial evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method is utilized to obtain the weights of common performance conditions (CPCs) by using triangular fuzzy numbers.Then, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is introduced to evaluate the performance CPCs, which can reduce the influences of subjective assessment when considering judgments from experts.Afterwards, the relationship between situational environment index and human error probability is established for a precise prediction.Finally, the results of modified CREAM and basic CREAM is compared under both actual and predefined scenarios.The result demonstrates that the modified CREAM is more reliable and sensitive than the basic CREAM.