An Estimation Method of Negative External Cost for Motor Vehicle Pollutants on Ordinary National and Provincial Highways
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摘要: 为充分挖掘普通国省道交通情况调查站采集的交通信息的价值，基于交通运行数据，建立普通国省道机动车污染物负外部成本的核算方法。根据给定的普通国省道路网资料，采集道路基础数据、交通流数据、机动车技术水平数据和城市社会经济数据；基于排放因子乘数法，处理采集到的数据，确定污染物基础排放系数、环境修正因子、道路交通状况修正因子和油品修正因子，得到综合排放系数、路网总里程和月平均日交通量，并计算CO、HC、NOx、PM2.5和PM10的实物量；基于当量税额乘数法，由污染物实物量和污染物污染当量的单位税额计算CO、HC、NOx、PM2.5和PM10的经济价值，即得到污染物负外部成本。以徐州市普通国省道路网开展实例分析，发现2022年徐州市国省道路网的机动车污染物排放总量为8 514 t，负外部成本为2 157万元。其中，CO和NOx的实物量占总排放量的比例高达95%，NOx的负外部成本占总成本的比例超过95%，中小客车和特大货车排放的CO和NOx分担率较高，表明徐州市的大气污染治理应重点关注中小客车和特大货车的NOx排放控制。对比其他学者的研究可知，不同城市的主要污染物种类和主要排放源存在差异，运输部门应根据实际情况制定相关决策。Abstract: To fully explore the value of traffic information collected by traffic investigation stations on ordinary national and provincial highways, based on traffic operational data, an estimation method is proposed for the motor vehicle pollutants'negative external cost on ordinary national and provincial highways. Based on the given ordinary national and provincial highway networks material, basic road attributes, traffic flow data, motor vehicle technology data, and urban socio-economic data are collected. After that, based on the emission factor multiplier method, the collected data is processed to determine the base emission coefficients for pollutants, environmental correction factors, road traffic condition correction factors, and fuel quality correction factors. Then, the comprehensive emission coefficient, total road network mileage, and monthly average daily traffic volume are derived. Additionally, the quantities of CO, HC, NOx, PM2.5, and PM10 are calculated. Finally, based on the equivalent multiplier method, the economic values of CO, HC, NOx, PM2.5, and PM10 emissions are calculated based on the quantity of pollutants and the unit tax amount of pollution equivalent, which results in the negative external cost of pollutants. The ordinary national and provincial highway network in Xuzhou City is selected to conduct the empirical study. The results show that the total emissions of motor vehicle pollutants from the network in 2022 were 8 514 tons, reflecting a negative external cost of 21.57 million yuan. In addition, the physical quantities of CO and NOx accounted for up to 95% of the total emissions, the negative external cost of NOx accounts for over 95% of the total cost, and passenger cars and medium-sized buses and oversized trucks had higher shares of CO and NOx emissions, indicating that the focus of air pollution control in Xuzhou should be on controlling NOx emissions from these types of vehicles. Compared with the research of other scholars, it can be seen that there are differences in the types of major pollutants and their primary emission sources among different cities. Therefore, the transportation sector should formulate relevant decisions based on actual conditions.
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图 1 机动车污染物负外部成本核算流程
Figure 1. Accounting process for negative external costs of motor vehicle pollutants
图 2 徐州市普通国省道路网各类机动车CO综合排放系数
Figure 2. Comprehensive CO emission factors of various types of motor vehicles in Xuzhou highway network
图 3 徐州市普通国省道路网各类机动车月平均日交通量
Figure 3. Monthly average daily traffic volume of various types of motor vehicles in Xuzhou highway network
图 4 路网机动车CO排放量分布图
Figure 4. Distribution of CO emissions from motor vehicles in highway networks
图 5 徐州市普通国省道机动车污染物实物量核算结果
Figure 5. Calculation results of pollutants from motor vehicles on Xuzhou highway
图 6 徐州市普通国省道机动车污染物经济价值核算结果
Figure 6. Calculation results of the pollutants value from motor vehicles on Xuzhou highways
图 7 徐州市普通国省道2022年机动车污染物排放占比分布
Figure 7. Distribution of motor vehicle pollutant emissions in Xuzhou highways in 2022
表 1 数据采集表
Table 1. Data collection table
数据类别 数据项 数据项说明 道路基础数据 线路总条数 普通国省道路网的线路总数 交调路段总条数 普通国省道路网的交调路段总数 交调路段长度 每条交调路段的观测长度 交通流数据 中小客车、大客车、小货车、中货车、大货车、特大货车、集装箱车流量 每个交调路段中小客车、大客车、小货车、中货车、大货车、特大货车、集装箱车的实时5 min流量 中小客车、大客车、小货车、中货车、大货车、特大货车、集装箱车速度 每个交调路段中小客车、大客车、小货车、中货车、大货车、特大货车、集装箱车的实时5 min平均速度 机动车技术水平数据 机动车轴重 通行车辆的轴载重量 机动车标准载重 通行车辆的标准载重量 机动车牌照 通行车辆的牌照号码 机动车牌照颜色 通行车辆的牌照颜色 机动车燃油类型 车辆发动机类型，包括汽油车、柴油车、其他类型车 机动车排放标准 车辆排放标准，如国一前、国一、国二、国三、国四、国五和国六 区域社会经济数据 汽油含硫量 汽油中硫及其衍生物的含量 柴油含硫量 柴油中硫及其衍生物的含量 CO、HC、NOx、PM2.5、PM10应税污染物适用税额 CO、HC、NOx、PM2.5、PM10应税大气污染物适用税额标准 温度 月平均温度 湿度 月平均湿度 海拔 城市平均海拔高度 
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表 2 普通国省道常见机动车类型匹配结果及对应污染物的基础排放系数
Table 2. Matching of motor vehicle types and corresponding basic emission factors for pollutants
普通国省道路网车型 《指南》车型 燃油类型 排放控制技术 基础排放系数/（g/（km·veh）） CO HC NOx PM2.5 PM10 中小客车 小型载客汽车 汽油车 国三 1.180 0.191 0.100 0.007 0.008 国四 0.680 0.075 0.032 0.003 0.003 国五 0.460 0.056 0.017 0.003 0.003 其他燃料 国五 0.500 0.091 0.027 0.003 0.003 中型载客汽车 汽油车 国三 4.330 0.373 0.474 0.011 0.012 国四 1.980 0.107 0.196 0.006 0.007 国五 1.980 0.107 0.147 0.006 0.007 其他燃料 国五 2.330 0.596 1.064 0.006 0.007 大客车 大型载客汽车 柴油车 国四 3.250 0.107 9.892 0.252 0.280 国五 1.620 0.054 8.640 0.126 0.140 柴油车 国五 4.570 1.192 3.728 0.044 0.049 小货车 轻型载货汽车 柴油车 国五 1.480 0.186 2.240 0.012 0.013 中货车 中型载货汽车 柴油车 国五 1.650 0.103 3.701 0.020 0.022 大货车 中型载货汽车 柴油车 国五 1.650 0.103 3.701 0.020 0.022 特大货车 重型载货汽车 柴油车 国五 2.200 0.129 4.721 0.027 0.030 集装箱车 重型载货汽车 柴油车 国五 2.200 0.129 4.721 0.027 0.030
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表 3 路网柴油车平均载重率分布表
Table 3. Distribution of average load ratio of diesel vehicles in highway networks
载重率R/% 占比/% ≤50 57.18 ＞50~60 8.82 ＞60~75 14.94 ＞75~100 14.78 ＞100 4.29
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