集装箱港口“非集计”碳排放评估方法与“碳中和”实现方法

崔兴博; 钟鸣; 李林锋; 马晓凤

doi:10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2024.05.012

集装箱港口“非集计”碳排放评估方法与“碳中和”实现方法

doi: 10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2024.05.012

崔兴博^{1, 2,},
钟鸣^{1, 2, ,},
李林锋^{1, 2},
马晓凤^{1, 2}

1.
武汉理工大学智能交通系统研究中心武汉 430063
2.
武汉理工大学国家水运安全工程技术研究中心武汉 430063

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目 2021YFB2601300

详细信息

作者简介:
崔兴博（2001—），硕士研究生. 研究方向：智慧交通规划与管理. E-mail: 347032@whut.du.cn

通讯作者:
钟鸣（1971—），博士，教授. 研究方向：土地利用与交通整体规划、交通与能源融合等. E-mail: mzhong@whut.edu.cn

中图分类号: U651+.5
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-05-27
- 网络出版日期: 2025-01-22

Disaggregate Carbon Emission Assessment Method and the Pathway to Carbon Neutrality in Container Ports

CUI Xingbo^{1, 2
,},
ZHONG Ming^{1, 2
, ,},
LI Linfeng^{1, 2},
MA Xiaofeng^{1, 2}

1.
Intelligent Transportation Systems Research Center, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430063, China
2.
National Engineering Research Center for Water Transport Safety, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430063, China

摘要

摘要: 针对港口向绿色转型，碳排放核算以及港口绿色化转型成本核算问题，通过对集装箱港口物流作业过程的深入分析，构建其碳排放评价方法并探讨其“碳中和”实现路径，以促进其可持续发展。据集装箱港口吞吐量历史数据，通过GM（1，1）模型方法对未来年港口吞吐量进行预测，并基于预测的港口吞吐量，通过分段核算港口各物流作业过程中港口机械与仓储办公等基础设施的平均耗能，进行港口碳排放“自下而上”的预测。针对港口碳排放的主要来源，研究一系列碳减排路径和策略，包括港口设施升级、港口技术革新、港口能源绿色化和政策激励等措施，并针对每个措施的成本进行核算。最后以某集装箱港口为例，分析各项碳减排措施的减排效果和成本。结果表明：随着港口吞吐量的不断增长，港口设施升级和港口技术革新只能够降低港口“碳达峰”时的碳排放量，且在“碳达峰”之后碳排放量不会再减少，与不采取措施的基准情景相比，只采取港口设施升级措施年度最大碳减排比例为38.49%，同时实施港口设施升级和技术革新实现年度最大碳减排比例为61.29%；在实施港口设施升级和技术革新的基础上，增加港口能源绿色化措施，提高新能源应用比例，能够实现港口“碳中和”目标。在政策激励的情况下，能够提前15年实现“碳中和”。各项港口碳减排措施的应用在减少碳排放的同时，还能够降低港口能源应用成本，在其直接经济效益提升方面也具有一定的正向效果。
- 绿色港口 /
- 集装箱港口 /
- 碳减排核算 /
- 新能源 /
- 碳中和
Abstract: In response to the green transition of ports, carbon emission accounting, and the cost estimation of adopting greening measures, an in-depth analysis of the logistics operations at container ports is conducted. It aims to establish a carbon emission evaluation method and explore pathways to achieving carbon neutrality, thereby promoting sustainable development. This study employs the GM(1, 1) model to forecast future port throughput based on historical data at container ports. Based on these predictions, a segmented approach is used to assess the average energy consumption of port machinery, storage, office facilities, and other infrastructure during logistics operations, enabling a bottom-up prediction of port carbon emissions. To address the major sources of carbon emissions at ports, several carbon reduction strategies and pathways are explored, including facility upgrades, technological innovations, green energy adoption, and policy incentives. A detailed cost analysis is conducted for each strategy. A case study of a specific container port demonstrates the emission reduction potential and costs associated with these measures. Results show that as throughput continues to increase, facility upgrades and technological innovations can only reduce carbon emissions significantly during the port's peak operations, and after the peak stage, emissions will not further decrease. Compared to the baseline scenario without measures, implementing only facility upgrades achieves a maximum annual carbon reduction of 38.49%, while combining facility upgrades with technological innovations yields a maximum annual reduction of 61.29%. Furthermore, the introduction of green energy measures facilitates the achievement of carbon neutrality, and policy incentives can accelerate this process by up to 15 years. The application of these measures not only reduces carbon emissions but also lowers port energy costs, thus contributing positively to the direct economic benefits of ports during green transitions.
- green ports /
- container ports /
- carbon emission reduction accounting /
- new energy /
- Carbon neutrality

HTML全文

图 1 集装箱港口主要能源消耗示意图

Figure 1. Schematic diagram of the main energy consumption of container ports

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图 2 港口碳排放核算及优化成本流程图

Figure 2. Flow chart of port carbon emission accounting and reform costs

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图 3 2013—2060年港口吞吐量变化趋势

Figure 3. Trend of port throughput from 2013 to 2060

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图 4 不同的碳减排措施下港口电动化设备及新能源应用比例

Figure 4. Proportion of port electric equipment and new energy application under different carbon emission reduction measures

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图 5 2024—2040年港口各环节碳排放量预测结果

Figure 5. Forecast results of carbon emissions from the port in 2024-2040

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图 6 绿色措施碳减排占比（场景1）

Figure 6. Proportion of carbon emission reduction from green measures(Scenario 1)

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图 7 绿色措施碳减排占比（场景2）

Figure 7. Proportion of carbon emission reduction from green measures(Scenario 2)

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图 8 港口新能源装机容量和自洽率变化趋势（场景3）

Figure 8. Change trend of installed capacity and self-sufficiency rate of new energy in port(Scenario 3)

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图 9 绿色措施碳减排占比（情景3）

Figure 9. Proportion of carbon emission reduction from green measures(Scenario 3)

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图 10 港口新能源装机容量和自洽率变化趋势（场景4）

Figure 10. Trend chart of self-sufficiency rate(Scenario 4)

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图 11 场景3和场景4相对基准情景碳减排量

Figure 11. Scenario 3 and scenario 4 are relative to baseline scenario carbon reduction

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图 12 不同场景下港口碳排放总量变化情况

Figure 12. Changes of total port carbon emissions under different scenarios

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图 13 港口碳减排措施综合成本变化情况

Figure 13. Comprehensive cost changes of port carbon reduction measures

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表 1 A港2013—2022年港口吞吐量

Table 1. Port throughput of the port A from 2013 to 2022

年份	港口吞吐量/万TEU	年份	港口吞吐量/万TEU
2013	86	2018	147
2014	100	2019	161
2015	106	2020	157
2016	112	2021	184
2017	127	2022	202

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表 2 港口设备能源消耗因子

Table 2. Energy consumption factors of port equipment

装卸工具	消耗能源形式
岸桥	柴油驱动（/ L/TEU） -	电力驱动（kW·h/TEU） 10.235 6
场桥	柴油驱动（/ L/TEU） 1.377 3	电力驱动（kW·h/TEU） 2.920 7
内集卡	柴油驱动（/ L/km） 0.9	电力驱动（/ kW·h/km） 3.4
船舶作业用电	柴油发电（/ L/艘） 75	岸电（/ kW·h /艘） 78.9

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表 3 港口设备成本参数

Table 3. Port equipment cost parameters

设备类别	建设成本（/ 万元/台）	维护成本（/ 万元/年）
岸桥	2 600	9 3
场桥	900	0.8
集卡	70	8.4
岸电	165	8.25
信息系统	200	10
新能源	0.45	0.04

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表 4 2021年各区域电网排放因子

Table 4. Emissionfactors of each regional national grid in 2021

地区	因子（/ kgCO₂/kWh）
华北	0.712 0
东北	0.601 2
华东	0.599 2
华中	0.535 4
西北	0.595 1
南方	0.432 6
西南	0.211 3

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表 5 碳减排措施具体执行方案

Table 5. Carbon reduction measures specific implementation plan

港口碳减排措施	执行方案
港口设施升级	每年对15%的场桥进行油改电升级，对20%的内集卡进行油改电升级，岸使用比例按照
港口能源优化	每年20%的比例增长每隔5年更新1次自洽率，每次更新自洽率增长12.5%
港口技术革新	在2025年引入堆场信息化管理系统，平均翻箱次数从9次减少到4次
政策激励	场桥升级比例增加到20%，内集卡升级比例增加到25%，岸电使用增长率为30%，每次更新自洽率增长20%

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表 6 场景具体措施

Table 6. Scenario-specific measures

场景	碳减排措施
基准场景	不采取任何碳减排措施，各设备电气化比例保持现状
场景1	港口设施升级
场景2	港口设施升级和港口技术革新
场景3	港口技术升级、港口技术革新和港口能源优化
场景4	考虑政策激励的港口技术升级、港口技术革新和港口能源优化

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表 7 不同措施单位碳减排量综合成本

Table 7. Comprehensive cost per unit of carbon reduction of different measures

措施	年平均综合成本/万元	年平均碳减排量/tCO₂	单位碳减排量综合成本（/ 元/tCO₂）
港口设施升级	-8 365.83	88 752.74	-942.6
港口技术革新	-4 545.01	53 929.10	-842.77
港口能源优化	-2 611.50	50 260.52	-519.59

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